Toulouse, France: Airbus has significantly revised its long-term aircraft demand outlook projecting a global need for 43,420 new aircraft, both passenger and cargo between 2025 and 2044. This fresh forecast, released just ahead of the 2025 Paris Air Show signals strong confidence in the aviation industry's resilience and the growing global demand for air travel, even amid lingering supply chain challenges and geopolitical uncertainties. Of the total projected deliveries, approximately 39,500 will be passenger aircraft, and 3,920 will be freighters, with 920 of those being newly built cargo aircraft. The rest will come from conversions of existing passenger jets into freighters, a trend driven by the ongoing surge in e-commerce and express delivery demand worldwide. According to Airbus, 80% of all new aircraft will be single-aisle jets such as the A320 family. These aircraft are in high demand across fast-growing domestic and regional aviation markets, especially in countries like India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines where more people are flying than ever before. These markets are witnessing rapid population growth, an expanding middle class, and improved airport infrastructure, creating conditions ripe for aviation growth. The remaining 20% of aircraft will be wide-body aircraft, which are typically used for long-haul international flights. Demand for these aircraft is expected to come from countries with large international hubs such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Singapore, the United States, Germany, and France. These nations play key roles in global connectivity, acting as transfer points between continents and regions. China is set to dominate the demand, with Airbus projecting the country will need over 9,000 new aircraft by 2044, more than 20% of the global total. This makes China the single largest aviation market outside the U.S., with growth driven by a mix of expanding domestic travel, regional connections, and increasing international operations. India, already among the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets, is expected to require more than 2,500 new aircraft over the same period. The Indian government's push to improve regional connectivity through the UDAN scheme, combined with a young population and rapid urbanization, continues to fuel the country’s aviation boom. The Middle East, with ambitious aviation projects like Saudi Arabia’s NEOM airport, UAE’s Al Maktoum International Airport, and Qatar’s long-term expansion plans, will remain a key region for wide-body orders. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are actively investing in new-generation aircraft to support their growing fleets and airline ambitions. In Africa, while demand is smaller in absolute terms, the continent is expected to double its fleet size. Countries like Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa are projected to see strong growth, especially in intra-African connectivity, which has been historically underserved. Airbus estimates that the global passenger traffic will grow by 3.6% annually over the next 20 years. This growth is consistent across emerging and developed markets and is driven by a mix of population growth, tourism recovery, business travel, and international trade. At the same time, the total number of aircraft in service worldwide is expected to rise from 24,240 aircraft in 2024 to around 48,230 by 2044. By then, nearly 95% of the global fleet will be comprised of new-generation aircraft, underlining the shift toward more fuel-efficient, quieter, and lower-emission designs. Despite ongoing bottlenecks in engine deliveries, avionics, and cabin interiors, Airbus remains committed to delivering 820 aircraft in 2025. While production has been affected in the short term, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. The company continues to ramp up output, particularly for its A320neo family, which remains a global bestseller. The new forecast from Airbus underscores a global aviation industry that is not only recovering but preparing for its next era of expansion, one that is greener, more connected, and more geographically diverse than ever before. With countries across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America contributing significantly to future fleet growth, the next two decades could see air travel become even more accessible and essential to economies worldwide.
Airbus

India, China Lead Airbus’ 2044 Outlook with 43,000+ Aircraft Demand Projected Globally

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Picture Credits: Airbus Toulouse, France: Airbus has significantly revised its long-term aircraft demand outlook projecting a global need for 43,420 […]