Mumbai, India: India’s civil aviation sector is facing a significantly sharper financial downturn than previously expected, with credit rating agency ICRA revising its net loss estimate for fiscal year 2025‑26 to ₹17,000–18,000 crore, almost double earlier projections of around ₹9,500–10,500 crore. The downgrade comes amid a combination of operational disruptions, currency volatility, rising costs, and sluggish passenger demand.
ICRA has also sharply cut its passenger traffic forecasts. Domestic air travel is now expected to grow only 0–3% in FY26, down from an earlier projection of 4–6%, while international traffic growth is revised to 7–9%, from 13–15% previously.
The agency highlighted that passenger sentiment has been negatively impacted by recent operational challenges, including IndiGo’s mass flight cancellations in December 2025. The airline had to cancel around 4,500 flights over a few days due to staffing shortages and duty-time management issues. While these cancellations accounted for a small fraction of total annual flights, they significantly affected public confidence in air travel.
In addition, the Air India Boeing 787‑8 crash in June 2025 has continued to weigh on passenger confidence, particularly among international and business travelers, according to ICRA analysts.
The Indian rupee’s depreciation against the US dollar has increased foreign-denominated costs for airlines, including aircraft leases, maintenance, and spare parts. Fuel costs, which constitute around 30–40% of airline operating expenses, remain elevated, adding further strain to profitability.
ICRA noted that high operating costs, combined with lower-than-expected passenger traffic, have created a challenging environment for Indian carriers, especially low-cost operators who rely heavily on domestic traffic.
In response to recent disruptions, IndiGo has implemented measures to improve operational reliability, including enhanced pilot allowances, roster adjustments, and better crew scheduling. While these steps aim to restore normalcy, the agency warns that disruptions may continue to affect short-term performance.
Despite these challenges, ICRA expects that the long-term outlook remains stable, with FY27 projected to see a rebound in traffic growth as operational and economic headwinds ease. Analysts emphasize that India’s aviation sector continues to benefit from structural demand drivers, including growing middle-class travel, urban connectivity, and international tourism.
Even with the revised loss estimates, India’s civil aviation market remains one of the fastest-growing in the world. While airlines face short-term financial stress, the medium-term outlook for domestic and international travel continues to be supported by rising discretionary income, urbanisation, and renewed interest in leisure travel.
