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Aviation Forecast

New Delhi, India: India’s aviation industry is bracing for a difficult FY2026, with ICRA estimating sector-wide losses to climb to Rs 95–105 billion, almost double the Rs 55 billion loss expected in FY2025. Softening passenger growth, upcoming fleet inductions and ongoing global and domestic disruptions are set to pressure financial performance. Even so, ICRA has maintained a stable outlook for the year, supported by steady travel demand, though influenced by cross-border tensions, accident-related caution and tariff-linked challenges on the commercial side. Domestic passenger traffic in October 2025 reached 142.8 lakh, up 4.5% from October 2024 and 12.9% higher than September 2025. Capacity deployment grew 1.7% year-on-year to 99,816 departures, with passenger load factor rising to 84.7%, compared with 82.4% a year earlier. For April–October 2025, domestic traffic stood at 944.5 lakh, a 1.6% year-on-year increase. ICRA expects full-year FY2026 domestic travel to grow 4–6%, reaching 172–176 million passengers. International traffic carried by Indian airlines rose 5.8% year-on-year in September 2025, touching 28.3 lakh, though sequentially down by 5.7%. In H1 FY2026, international traffic reached 175.6 lakh, marking 9.1% growth. ICRA projects further expansion of 13–15% in FY2026. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) remains a key cost concern. ATF prices in November 2025 were 4.4% higher year-on-year and 0.8% higher month-on-month. FY2025 had seen average ATF prices fall to Rs 95,181 per KL, about 8% lower year-on-year, but recent months have reversed that relief. Fuel constitutes 30–40% of airline operating expenses, while 35–50% of major costs are dollar-linked. The rupee’s depreciation in Q2 FY2026 led to notable forex losses for several carriers, though most remain unrealised. Fleet shortages persist. Pratt & Whitney engine problems and broader supply-chain delays resulted in around 133 aircraft being grounded across various airlines by March 2025, representing 15–17% of total industry capacity. IndiGo had 70 aircraft grounded in March 2024 due to powder-metal contamination, which reduced to about 40 by September 2025. Go Airlines, hit by similar issues, eventually grounded half its fleet in FY2024 and suspended operations. These constraints have increased operating costs through replacement leases, poorer fuel efficiency and higher spot-rental rates. Despite strong PLFs and firmer yields, profitability remains limited. The industry’s interest coverage ratio is expected to remain at 1.5–1.7 times for FY2026. Large carriers benefit from parent backing, while others continue to face liquidity stress and stretched balance sheets. The DGCA has proposed new passenger-centric norms allowing customers to cancel or modify tickets within 48 hours of booking without charges, provided the travel date is beyond five days (domestic) or fifteen days (international). Refunds are to be processed within 21 working days.

ICRA Warns Of Rs 105 Billion Loss For Indian Aviation In FY2026 Amid Slowing Growth

Aviation Today News Desk November 21, 2025

New Delhi, India: India’s aviation industry is bracing for a difficult FY2026, with ICRA estimating sector-wide losses to climb to Rs

Paris, France: CAE, a global leader in aviation training, has released its latest Aviation Talent Forecast during the Paris Air Show 2025. The comprehensive report projects an urgent and growing need for over 1.465 million aviation professionals worldwide within the next ten years, highlighting critical workforce gaps across multiple segments including commercial and business aviation. 1.5 Million Roles Needed Globally According to CAE's 2025 outlook, the aviation industry will require: 299,000 new pilots (267,000 in commercial aviation and 33,000 in business aviation) 485,000 new maintenance technicians (416,000 in commercial aviation and 69,000 in business aviation) 678,000 new cabin crew members 71,000 new air traffic controllers, marking the first time this segment has been included in CAE’s forecast The sharp growth in personnel demand is being driven by a combination of factors, including projected aircraft fleet expansion, strong passenger traffic recovery, global fleet modernization, and an aging aviation workforce set to retire over the next decade. Asia-Pacific Leads Demand The Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead in workforce demand, accounting for more than one-third of the projected personnel needs. Countries such as India and China are identified as high-growth markets, supported by rising middle-class populations, increasing air connectivity, and ongoing airline expansion. North America, the Middle East, and Europe also represent significant demand centers, particularly for replacement of retiring professionals. Retirement and Attrition Contribute to Shortfall The forecast attributes a large portion of the anticipated shortfall to retirements and career attrition. For example, the commercial aviation sector alone is expected to see over 129,000 pilots retiring, while the business aviation segment may lose nearly 69,000 pilots over the same period. Similarly, a substantial number of maintenance engineers and cabin crew are expected to leave the workforce due to age or changing career preferences. Additionally, CAE’s report highlights high dropout and washout rates in certain sectors, including air traffic control, where trainee attrition in the U.S. is reported to be above 30%. The industry is being urged to take note of these structural barriers and implement more resilient and supportive training programs. Training Innovation and Industry Coordination Required To meet these challenges, CAE is calling for the aviation ecosystem including airlines, training organizations, and regulatory authorities to adopt innovative training technologies and adaptable learning models. The report specifically points to the importance of modernized simulator technology, AI-driven adaptive learning, and the integration of extended reality (XR) training tools. CAE also emphasized the need for industry-wide collaboration to attract and retain talent, including improved mentorship programs, career path visibility for younger demographics, and global partnerships to scale training capacity across geographies.

CAE Forecasts Need for 1.5 Million Aviation Professionals Including 300,000 Pilots by 2034

Aviation Today News Desk June 17, 2025

Picture Credits: CAE Paris, France: CAE, a global leader in aviation training, has released its latest Aviation Talent Forecast during the

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